HOUSTON — With a La Niña pattern expected along with above-normal sea surface temperatures, the team at Colorado State University is calling for a well-above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at CSU are calling for 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes with five of those becoming major storms (sustained winds above 110 mph).
That would represent a season of 170% to 180% of normal. So how would that stack up against other busy hurricane seasons of the past?
2020 holds the record for the busiest season measured since records began. That year had 30 named storms including 14 hurricanes with seven of those becoming major hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes (Laura, Delta and Zeta) battered the Louisiana coast. A repeat of these stats would be well above the CSU forecast for this year.
2005 was another very active season. It was also a La Niña year that saw 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes with seven of those becoming major storms. This was the year that Hurricane Katrina battered New Orleans, causing the levees to break. It also saw Hurricane Rita take aim at Houston, triggering the largest evacuation in US history. The storm eventually turned, sparing Houston but giving Cameron and Lake Charles, Louisiana a devastating blow.
Another La Niña year to remember for Houston was 2008 which saw 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes with five majors. This hurricane season marked the last time the Houston/Galveston area was hit by a big one, hurricane Ike. While over open water, Ike did hit Category 4 intensity. The storm weakened to a Cat 2 before making landfall across the upper Texas coast. The storm surge, however, was that of a strong Cat 4. This storm surge was focused on the Bolivar Peninsula and wiped hundreds of homes off the map. It was because of this storm that the National Hurricane Center changed the way it forecasts storm surge, now separating that forecast from the intensity forecast.
The big takeaways from all this? La Niña seasons can bring an enhanced number of storms and hurricanes. However, there is no way of knowing where the storms will go. Regardless of the preseason forecast, your job is to get prepared before the season starts so you don't get caught in the panic if a big one does come our way. Watch the weather several times a day during hurricane season and download our app. We'll do our job, keeping you informed with the best information so you can keep your family safe.
