OAKLAND — Now we’ll see if Tilman Fertitta was right.
Back on Jan. 20, on that memorable night when the Houston Rockets’ rookie owner would celebrate a win over the vaunted Golden State Warriors, he stood inside a Toyota Center suite and discussed the dream scenario that now lies before his team.
A chance to decimate a dynasty, to unseat the defending champs and get one step closer to winning the franchise’s first crown since those Hakeem Olajuwon-led teams in 1994 and 1995 – not to mention get his money’s worth after paying a then-league record $2.2 billion for the team in early September. Both Fertitta’s Rockets and the Warriors finished their Western Conference semifinals series in five games within hours of each other on Tuesday, with Houston winning Game 5 at home against Utah 112-102 and Golden State routing New Orleans 113-104 in its game at Oracle Arena.
And now, the next chapter of NBA history begins to unfold.
Photos: Rockets advance to Western Conference Finals with 112-102 win vs. Jazz
“A lot of things have to go right (to win a title),” Fertitta told USA TODAY Sports on that night. “You still listen to all the talking heads, and they all say, 'Oh, it's probably going to be 100 percent Golden State (winning it all)…(but) we don't know what's going to happen come May or June.'
“This is a weird game, but nothing happens like we think it's going to happen. So I think this is going to be a surprising season. I think all the experts think they have it figured out, and I don't think they do. I think we're all going to be surprised.”
Or will we?
Here is an early look at key factors in the series and why, in the end, I’m predicting a Warriors victory in seven games.
1. A HEALTHY CURRY - SORT OF
What’s that saying about how 80 percent of life is showing up? Well if the Warriors didn’t have two-time MVP Steph Curry available to clock in for this showdown, then it would be 100 percent plausible to pick the Rockets. But after missing nearly six weeks with a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee, Curry clocked in for four games of the second round against the Pelicans.
He averaged 24.5 in those games (44.1% from three-point range), with none better than his 28-point, eight-assists, seven-rebound outing in Game 5. More importantly, he looked spry and offered no complaints about pain or limitations from the knee. That doesn’t mean he’s 100 percent, though.
Yet after telling reporters on Tuesday morning shoot-around that he wasn't sure when he would be fully healthy, the fact that Curry played 37 minutes was the best sign yet that he's truly back.
"In my head when I'm out there, (I'm) just trying to play free and not worry about anything and continue to try to get my rhythm on both ends and keep moving, Curry said after Game 5. "The last...four games have been solid. So looking forward to continue to build that momentum into the next series.
"Yeah, I feel good. I feel confident in what I'm able to do out there. Timing can still get a little better with the ball, things like that, when you start to get so excited...I continue to get better, continue to get my timing right and continue to get back to the normal rotations, normal, you know, minutes that I'm out there playing, and hopefully won't look back."
His presence is a game-changer when it comes to the sheer star power in this series. While Rockets center Clint Capela looks like an All-Star of late, the fact remains that the Warriors have four actual All-Stars (Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green) while the Rockets have two (Chris Paul and James Harden). The Rockets are healthy as well, though, meaning this is the matchup we’ve all been waiting for.
2. A MATTER OF MOTIVATION
A sports psychologist could have a field day with this matchup.
On one side, you have three Warriors All-Stars who are now four years into this dominating run with Curry, Thompson and Green. As Warriors coach/five-time champion player Steve Kerr often discusses, it takes a mental toll being this good for this long. So even with Durant just two seasons into his part in this Warriors story, do they have the edge and the will to keep it going? We shall see.
On the other side, you have the well-chronicled postseason failings of James Harden and Chris Paul that will either weigh them down or inspire them to break through. Harden, whose only trip to the Finals came with Oklahoma City in 2012 when the Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder lost to Miami, had the worst finish of any star player in the 2017 playoffs in the second-round loss to San Antonio. And Paul, if you somehow haven’t heard, will now play in the first conference finals of his 13-year career.
Until this breakthrough, he had played in more playoff games than any player in league history without reaching this point (86). His desire to play for it all had everything to do with his move to Houston last summer, and this is his chance to follow through.
What’s more, Paul knows what it feels like to beat the Warriors in a playoff series. Before Durant arrived, Paul’s Clippers outlasted Golden State in seven games during the 2014 first round. A year later, the Warriors were winning the first of two titles since.
Photos: Rockets fans flock to Toyota Center for Game 5 vs. Jazz
3. HOME-COURT THE X-FACTOR?
Should this prediction come true and the Warriors win in seven games, that means they did it on the Rockets’ home floor at the end. The Warriors, come to think of it, might need to wrap it up in six if they’re going to pull this off.
Houston was tied with Toronto for the best home record this season (both 34-7), though one of those Rockets losses came against Golden State (124-114 on Jan. 4). The Warriors were 29-12 on the road.
"It's been awhile since we started out a series on the road," Green said. "(We) kind of forget that feeling. But we're definitely looking forward to it. You know, this is a great opportunity for us.
"I'm looking forward to the opportunity for us to go start a series somewhere else and not so much where we're at home, like you said, protecting, just trying not to give up a game. We got a couple swings to go in there and take one. I'm looking forward to that for sure."
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