CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — On the heels of the second hottest September on record in Corpus Christi, many folks in the Coastal Bend are craving, hoping, wishing, demanding a cold front comes to save us from the grips of Summer. September observed 26 days where the afternoon high temperature was above the normal high for the date. Only twice did we fail to break into the 90s. 2019 ranks 2nd hottest all-time with respect to warmest Septembers on record, behind 1977. This ranking takes in to account the 24 hour temperature cycle; IE, highs and lows.
I've deemed the search for the first cold front, 'The Hunt for Cold October'. To the delight of many, including myself, forecast model guidance is suggesting the first cold front of the season will make it to South Texas early next week (October 7/8). An upper level trough will work into the Central/Great Lakes part of the U.S. over the weekend and into early next week. This feature will allow colder air to work south. The associated cold front, based on current data, would move in to South Texas either Monday October 7, or Tuesday October 8. Models are leaning toward the 7th. The two images below show the upper atmosphere winds (jet stream) and cold front placement at the surface next Monday and Tuesday.
If you're looking for jacket or sweater weather, this front is not the front for you. While it will be a noticeable change of pace behind the front, I wouldn't consider it 'cold'. Afternoon highs will likely top out in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday depending on the arrival of the front. Forecast details are vague right now because specifics are too far out to pin down and will likely need to be adjusted over the next 5 days as better and more reliable data becomes available.
Prior to the arrival of this front, the first week of October will feel more like August as highs will be topping out in the low 90s with plentiful humidity in place. Some are calling it 'Aug-tober'. We'll also have day-to-day chances for isolated showers through Friday as highs top out a handful of degrees above seasonal normal. Eventually, South Texas weather becomes very nice in the later parts of October as average highs top out in the low 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s. There's a reason many festivals happen in the Coastal Bend this time of year.