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Tracking the tropics: Tropical wave makes landfall in northeast Mexico

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 4 did not develop and the last advisory was issued after making landfall early Sunday morning.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four (PTC 4), is drawing interest in the southern Gulf of Mexico, more precisely the Bay of Campeche, west and south of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

Credit: KHOU

As for impacts to southeast Texas, direct impacts are not expected. Moist, tropical air will be pushed in our direction and that moist air interacting with our lingering boundary offshore will act to enhance our rain chances later in the weekend and a good chunk of next week.

Credit: KHOU

As the tropical moisture from this system clashes with the front to the north, several inches of beneficial rain is expected to fall across the state this week.  However, too much of a good thing can cause issues, and flooding may become a concern for some areas. 

Credit: KHOU

What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?

The National Hurrican Center said a Potential Tropical Cyclone is a term used in National Weather Service advisory products to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but which poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

What does an upgrade look like? 

If winds come in under 39 mph, it would be upgraded to a tropical depression. If winds are 39mph or greater it would be designated a tropical storm and get a name, Danielle.

With all that listed above, the system has the opportunity to become a tropical storm. The only problem is that it has to do so within a small window of time.

Its general track only keeps it over water, which is its fuel source, for less than 24 hours. Models thus far have been consistent in bringing whatever Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 becomes into the Mexican coast, south of Brownsville, Texas. That is not set in stone as models have only been able to guess where the center of PTC 4 is and model a track off of that. 

The KHOU 11 Weather Team is monitoring this wave and will be pushing updates to our website and all social media platforms through the weekend. 

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Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect that the system is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. At the time of publishing, it was Invest 99L.

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