HOUSTON — Hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal with a projected 19 named storms—9 of which are forecasted to be hurricanes, 4 of them major hurricanes (Cat 3+).
On average we see around 14 named storms each season -- 7 of which are hurricanes, 3 of them major hurricanes.
According to the outlook from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project this is the case because of a couple different factors, namely the absence of an El Niño.
We are currently under a La Niña phase. As of now, it hasn’t had much impact on the eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which remain near average. However, we are expecting to have a weak La Niña or a neutral phase remain in place, which would favor warming.
In addition to that, the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are running warmer than normal too. Wind shear is still expected to be lower than normal and for that season, development and livelihood of hurricanes this season is expected to be more favorable. Warm water is the fuel and weak wind protects the hurricanes from ripping apart too quickly.
Sea surface temperatures are the main indicators that a hurricane season may be more active than normal. With a La Niña phase in place trade winds weaken and warm water that would be pushed to southeast Asia remains in place.
Researcher Phil Klotzback with CSU anticipates there’s an “above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Last year, we had 21 named storms, 7 of which were hurricanes and 4 that were major (Cat 3+). This season is expected to be fairly similar.
Hurricane season starts June 1st and ends November 30th.