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Texas toss-up: New poll shows Lone Star State is all tied up

Three suburban counties near Dallas-Fort Worth could predict if Democrats can flip Texas for Joe Biden.

HOUSTON — President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are neck and neck in Texas at 48.1%, according to a poll released Thursday.

The last poll for Texas released just before Election Day by Morning Consult shows the race is a tie between Trump and Biden.

Who wins Texas Tuesday will largely depend on what happens in the major metro areas and whether Biden can build bigger leads than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. 

Election results: We'll have election results here on Tuesday night

But it's suburban counties that could give a better indication of what will happen in Texas. Dallas area counties like Collin and Denton, along with Tarrant County were reliably red four years ago. If Democrats can flip those counties from red to blue, there's a chance Texas could flip as well.

All three of those counties, along with Harris County, already surpassed total 2016 voter turnout. There's been historic turnout across the state so far. More than 9 million ballots have been cast in Texas just through early voting. 

A total of 8.9 million ballots were cast in Texas in 2016.

RELATED: 2020 Election Day voting guide for Houston and southeast Texas

Because of that level of turnout, Texas will be one of several states to watch on Election Night. What happens in critical Midwestern states will play a huge role too. But it's likely states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will take several days to give a clear idea of who is up or who is down. They cannot start counting their absentee mail-in ballots until Election Day. 

States like North Carolina and Florida do process their absentee ballots days before Election Day. They could offer the best clues about who is on their way to 270 Electoral Votes. 

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