HOUSTON — Texas Democrats always dream of turning Texas blue every four years, but Texas and its 38 electoral votes have been reliably red.
In 2016, President Donald Trump won Texas when he defeated Hillary Clinton by 9 points.
In 2016, approximately 8.9 million total ballots were cast in Texas. Flash forward to 2020, and more than 9 million votes have already been cast, and that's just through Early Voting.
It's a historic level of turnout across the state. It's why Democrats are hopeful Texas is within reach. It's also why VP nominee Senator Kamala Harris was in Houston on Friday, just four days before the election.
If Democrats flip Texas, that would completely alter the electoral map. Trump could win every battleground state on the map including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and still lose the Electoral College if Biden were to flip Texas.
Republicans admit it will be closer this time, but say a huge surge of Trump voters on Election Day will win Texas for the President.
"For Texas to flip blue it would be a political earthquake that we haven't seen in this country for at least 25 to 30 years," said GOP strategist Vlad Davidiuk. "Once we get to Election Day, I think Republicans are going to come out in historic numbers and we're going to see those votes come home."
So on Election Night, pundits will be watching what margins the Biden campaign can build up early in the major metro areas like Houston and Dallas. But two suburban Dallas-Fort Worth area counties could provide major clues as to how Texas will go. Collin and Tarrant counties both went for Trump by significant margins in 2016. If Democrats are able to flip those counties from red to blue, it could be an indication of who will win Texas 38 electoral votes.