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Blue wave in Texas? Latest poll shows Biden up 3 points with 9 days until election

With record-breaking turnout so far, Joe Biden's campaign is hoping to win Texas. VP nominee Sen. Kamala Harris is coming Friday to try and seal the deal.

HOUSTON — President Donald Trump spent Sunday in the northeast campaigning while former Vice President Joe Biden attended church and later hosted a virtual "I Will Vote" concert.

Both men are working with nine days to go until Election Day.

But one place Trump won't be returning to is Texas, despite tightening polls.

"We've had three to four back-to-back polls that show this is a toss-up," said KHOU political analyst Bob Stein.

The latest Dallas Morning News poll released Sunday shows Biden up three points in the reliably red state. The lead is within the margin of error. Stein says the data and real-time voting numbers show Biden has a chance.

"What matters in the election is turnout, simple as that," Stein said.

So far, turnout has been historic. Harris County has already seen more than 81% of its 2016 vote total and there's several days of early voting and Election Day to go.

"A lot of those early votes were Democrats," said Republican strategist Vlad Davidiuk. "They've been waiting four years to cast this vote against President Trump."

Davidiuk said Republicans are counting on a massive GOP turnout on Election Day. He said Biden's gaffe during the debate saying he would "transition away from the oil industry over time" will hurt him in Texas.

"It's something that I think undermined any momentum Biden had in Texas and has helped Trump move ahead," Davidiuk said.

But the Biden campaign still sees opportunity in Texas. So much so that VP nominee Sen. Kamala Harris will make stops in Fort Worth and Houston on Friday before early voting wraps up in Texas.

"If Trump loses Texas' electoral votes, he would not be the next president," Stein said.

The Trump campaign made it clear Sunday they do not consider Texas a real battleground. Davidiuk said it won't be as close as people think.

"At the end of the day, you will see those Republican voters, those Trump voters come home and vote through Election Day and put Trump over the top," Davidiuk said.

Who ultimately wins still anybody's guess, but if polls are right, Texas' 38 electoral votes could swing either way.