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Most Texas schools will see at least one COVID-19 case on campus within first week, UT study says

Researchers hope local policy makers can use data to help with decision making when it comes to reopening schools.

AUSTIN, Texas — A new study from the University of Texas at Austin says most Texas schools can expect to see at least one coronavirus infected person come on campus within the first week of school. Researchers found more than 80% of Americans live in a county where at least one infected person is expected to a school with 500 students and staff.

Dr. Spencer Fox was one of the research associates that contributed to the study. 

 "What we wanted to do, was come up with a metric that related the current disease dynamic in your region with what that means for how many people would show up on week one infected with Covid-19", said. Dr. Fox. 

The general public can access the data in an interactive map formed by the  New York Times.

"You can look on the map, select your county, see if you have a school of size 100, a school of size 500, 1,000, whatever it is, it tells you how many students are likely to come to school infected on the first week.", added Fox. 

In Jefferson and Hardin County, schools with 500 students and staff can see up to seven people infected on week one. The number increase to 14 in schools with 1,000 people. 

In Orange County, up to three infected people are expected to come into a school of 500, and seven infected in a school of 1,000. 

The study only considers the infections that would be introduced to schools, not the transmission that happens one campus. 

Dr. Fox says, "If transmission happens within school, then the numbers of people expected to come infected into classes would be much higher." 

RELATED: Harvard epidemiologist on education during COVID-19 pandemic

Researchers hope local policy makers can use data to help with decision making when it comes to reopening schools. 

"If schools plan to close upon detecting a single case, then many schools may not be able to open, because they'll open then detect a case and then just close right away.", added Dr. Fox. 

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