HOUSTON — As you know, it is impossible to offer specifics on a weather forecast beyond about 7 to 10 days... Due to matters of atmospheric chaos, even the most superior super computers of the future will never quite get it right once the timeline enters the, "max mix zone" -- when uncontrollable variables add up to overwhelm the forces currently at work. This means beyond 5 to 7 days, the atmosphere mixes how it will and a storm which looks to hit may miss altogether, or vice versa. (The same is true for long range climate models... but that's the subject for a different blog entry.)
That said, I do love helping folks with forecasts to help plan for their events and KHOU 11 is all about having the most accessible meteorologists the public can reach out to, and who are glad to assist within reason. But that reason includes forecasting without our ability. Going for a specific forecast more than a week out is a gamble and a guess. We can offer what the weather typically does in any part of the year, but it doesn't mean that weather will happen on that day. For instance, we know April can be warm -- but it can also be cold. It can be rainy or it can be sunny.
There's also a common misconception that finding a historically, "dry" weekend will mean if you pick the same weekend for a future event, it will guarantee fair weather and a rain-free day. Think about phrases people reference like, "it's always stormy the second weekend of March." Or, "It's always hot and dry the first week of July." But, this is rarely indicative of the weather actually found on a future date.
Comparing historical, “ dry/wet/whatever weekends“ with a goal of picking the right one for your future event months in advance is comparable to the stock market or a 401K. The common disclaimer investors must say is that, "Past performance does not guarantee future results." The same rings true for weather.
We can pick the driest weekend in April compared to other years, decades and centuries only two experience a flash flooding event this year. The secret? As I advise many folks who are planning big events which depend on sunny weather, it’s best to budget large outdoor tents or to hold the event inside!
-Brooks Garner, Meteorologist