Earlier today, Ida was a weak hurricane as it scraped across the Nicaraguan coast. This afternoon, it was downgraded to a tropical storm and tonight, it was further downgraded to a tropical depression as its winds slipped below 39 mph:
As Ida moves over the mountainous terrain in Nicaragua and Honduras Friday, expect torrential rain and subsequent live-threatening mud slides. Ida will retain its identity as an area of low pressure before re-emerging in the Western Caribbean as a tropical storm by early Saturday:
The track shows that Ida will end up in the central Gulf of Mexico by early next week. As that happens, a cold front will nudge Ida toward the Florida panhandle and west Florida peninsula. It is very unlikely that Ida will dodge that front and head for Texas.
Instead, our change this weekend comes from a mass of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico, referred to as the Bay of Campeche:
This cloud mass will move toward the Texas coast as a weak low pressure center that probably won't become an organized tropical system. Nevertheless, rain from that system will head our way late Saturday night into Sunday. Also, easterly winds will pick up raising tide levels along coastal areas.
This could mean some minor flooding for the Bolivar Peninsula and possibly the west end of Galveston Island. Rain is likely from mid-day Sunday through mid-day Monday. It is a little uncertain, though, how far inland the rain may reach. The forecast will become a little clearer as this system gets on the move late Friday, so stay tuned. At the very least, Saturday will be the better of the two upcoming weekend days.
