HOUSTON—The past week has proven to be a test for public health agencies trying to balance hype over the so-called swine flu with facts about the H1N1 virus.

“Influenza has been around for centuries,” said Dr. Richard Bradley, chief of the Division of EMS and Disaster Medicine at The University of Texas Medical School at Houston. “The human race has lived with this for a long time. And we can do pretty well with it.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates an average of 36,000 Americans die from influenza every year. Its latest report considers this year’s flu season normal. Despite that, the threat of the H1N1 virus in this city and others has led to school shut-downs, a run on hand sanitizers and questions about how big the threat really is.

Bradley said if the threat were to grow, and the 40 CDC-confirmed Texas cases multiplied, doctors and hospitals are ready to respond.

“We have plans, locally and nationally, for what we call “surge” operations,” he said. “The question really will become, “when do we have to activate these “surge” plans?”

Health professionals point to disasters such as Hurricane Katrina as examples of “surge” plans that have worked. Patients from Louisiana were brought here by the hundreds four years ago. Bradley said that “surge” tested those plans.

“Any disaster is a rehearsal for the next one,” he said. “And, without a doubt, Katrina was a disaster for us here in Houston because of the huge surge of patients that we had to take care of.”

Estimates put the number of hospital beds at the Texas Medical Center at 6,500. A so-called “surge” of sick patients, whether from the H1N1 virus or some other pandemic, means local hospitals would postpone elective surgeries. Area clinics would temporarily close. Those resources—those doctors, nurses and support staff—would be available to treat sick patients.

“The reality is that pandemics occur about three to four times a century,” said Bradley. “So, whether it’s this year, or whether it’s sometime in the next four or five years, when we have the next pandemic, we have a plan in place where we know how we will allocate our scarce resources to take care of the most people and do the most good that we can.”

Scientists are preparing for a return of the H1N1 virus next flu season and are researching and developing a vaccine.

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