NEW ORLEANS—With a historic evacuation of nearly 2 million people from the Louisiana coast complete, gun-toting police and National Guardsmen stood watch as rain started to fall on New Orleans empty streets Sunday night—and even presidential politics took a back seat as the nation waited to see if Hurricane Gustav would be another Katrina.

The hurricane warning was expanded at 7 p.m. to include High Island, Texas. The warning now stretches from High Island to the Alabama/Florida border.

Forecasters said Gustav could strengthen slightly as it marched toward the coast. At 10 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Gustav was centered about 220 miles southeast of New Orleans and was moving northwest near 16 mph. It had top sustained winds of 115 mph, and was likely to stay a Category 3 storm when it made landfall west of New Orleans. Category 3 storms have winds between 111 mph and 130 mph.

The storm was set to crash ashore early Monday morning with frightful force, testing the three years of planning and rebuilding that followed Katrina’s devastating blow to the Gulf Coast. The storm has already killed at least 94 people on its path through the Caribbean.

Painfully aware of the failings that led to more than 1,600 deaths during Katrina, this time officials moved beyond merely insisting tourists and residents leave south Louisiana. They threatened to put looters behind bars, loaded thousands onto buses and warned that anyone who remained behind would not be rescued.

They were confident that they had done all they could.

“It’s amazing. It makes me feel really good that so many people are saying, ‘We as Americans, we as the world, have to get this right this time,”’ New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said late Sunday.  as his campaign rewrote the script for the convention to emphasize a commitment to helping people.

The nation’s economic attention was focused on Gustav’s effect on refineries and offshore petroleum production rigs. The combination of prolonged production interruptions, such as occurred when Katrina and Rita damaged the Gulf infrastructure, could trigger rising prices.

Rain started falling in New Orleans before sunset, and tropical storm-force winds had reached the southeastern tip of the state.

New Orleans will likely be on the “dirty” side of the storm— where rainfall is heaviest and tornadoes are possible, but the storm surge is lower. If forecasts hold, the city would experience a storm surge of only 4 to 6 feet, compared to a surge of 10 to 14 feet at the site of landfall, said Corey Walton, a hurricane support meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center. Katrina, by comparison, brought a storm surge of 25 feet.

Surge models suggest large areas of southeast Louisiana, including parts of the greater New Orleans area, could be flooded by several feet of water. But Gustav appears most likely to overwhelm the levees west of the city that have for decades been underfunded and neglected and are years from an update.

Against all warnings, some gambled and decided to face the storm’s wrath. On an otherwise deserted commercial block of downtown Lafayette, about 135 miles west of the city, Tim Schooler removed the awnings from his photography studio. He thought about evacuating Sunday before deciding he was better off riding out the storm at home with his wife, Nona.

“There’s really no place to go. All the hotels are booked up to Little Rock and beyond,” he said. “We’re just hoping for the best.”

The final train out of New Orleans left with fewer than 100 people on board, while one of the last buses to make the rounds of the city pulled into Union Station empty. Police made final rounds around 7 p.m. Every officer in the department was on duty, and the 1,200 on the street were joined by 1,500 National Guardsmen.

The only sign of life on St. Bernard Avenue—a four-lane artery through the partially rebuilt Gentilly neighborhood that flooded during Katrina—was a brown and black rooster meandering along the street.

“When the 911 calls start coming in, we’ll know how many people are left in town,” said police superintendent Warren Riley.

Even as they pressed to complete the evacuation, officials insisted there would be no repeat of the inept response to Katrina’s wrath. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said search and rescue will be the top priority once Gustav passes— high-water vehicles, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, Coast Guard cutters and a Navy vessel that is essentially a floating emergency room are posted around the strike zone.

West of New Orleans in Houma, he wished passengers well as stragglers boarded buses for Shreveport and Dallas.

“It’s going to be hot on some of the buses. It’s going to be a long trip,” Chertoff said. “So it’s not going to be pleasant, but it’s a lot better than sitting in the Superdome and it’s a lot better than sitting in your house.”

Melissa Lee, who lives in Pearl River, a town near the boundary of Mississippi and Louisiana, was driving away to Florida Sunday.  Before she left, she heard neighbors chopping down trees with chain saws, trying to ensure the tall pines that surrounded their homes wouldn’t come crashing down.