Up Close: Doc details worst-case scenario

01:37 PM CDT on Wednesday, September 21, 2005

By Dave Fehling / 11 News

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The old adage says to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. In the following report, 11 News' Dave Fehling and hurricane expert Dr. Neil Frank take a look at what the worst might do.

University of Texas

Computer model prediction: Galveston Island before a Category 5.

"The peak of the Hurricane season is September 10 and 11," Dr. Neil Frank said.

Dr. Neil Frank spoke about the worst-case scenario, which would be a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane making a direct hit on Houston. He shared his wisdom about wind and water.

"You're going to see the water rise around the Bay a good 48 hours before the arrival of the hurricane," he said.

That would be the storm surge -- Water pushed by the hurricane out of the Gulf, a slow process at first according to one man who witnessed it firsthand and told his account to Dr. Neil Frank.

"He said I stayed at a place where the water came up 22 feet. He said the first eight feet came up gradually. Every hour you could see the wave action was a little higher, a little higher. He said the last 12 feet came up in 30 minutes. You cannot wait until you see the water rise and say 'Ok, now were going to get out," Dr. Frank explained.

University of Texas

Computer model prediction: Galveston Island after a Category 5.

Using computer models, an animation created by the University of Texas predicts that within 15 hours, Galveston Island, which is just barely above sea level, would all but disappear.

From another angle, the surge can be seen flooding areas around Texas City, League City and La Porte, as well as east Houston around the Ship Channel.

"The water is going to rise very, very rapidly," Dr. Frank said. "If you stay there, you don't have chance of getting out now."

As our hypothetical Category Five storm moves inland, the expected path of wind destruction would be about as wide as Houston itself.

"That you might see winds over 100 mph extend all the way up into Montgomery County. Well, our homes aren't built for 125 mph winds. So what we're going to see is a lot of the roofs blown off," he said.

Roofs would be off and trees would be down, along with power lines. Hundreds of thousands of those in the Houston area would likely be without electricity for days.

"There would be flooding, though how much would depend on how fast the hurricane moves through. In any case, it would not like the soup bowl of New Orleans where water had to be pumped out."

Houston is 50 feet above sea level and computer models show Sims and Brays Bayous would drain and be back in their banks within a day, with Buffalo Bayou and Clear Creek taking a day or two more.

Dr. Frank has personally surveyed damage from dozens of storms and should a Category Five ever hit in the Houston area, he think he knows what he'd find in the hardest hit areas.

"The best way I can describe that is we've seen pictures of what happened on the Mississippi coast. That's what the west end of Galveston Island is going to look like. Not much left," he said.

A sobering reality if the worst did happen in the area.