Ernesto spent most of the day hugging along the coast of Mexico where it hits the Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche). It never did regain hurricane strength, but it has brought torrential rains to the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca. Through the night, Ernesto will weaken quickly as it loses it's warm water fuel and just rains itself out over the southern Mexican mountains. By the way, if it weakens to just a low pressure system (winds below 35 mph), and enters the Pacific, it will get a new name - Hector. The Pacific list is different from the Atlantic and that basin is already up to G for Gilma.

Now, let's look east - more systems are firing up as the Cape Verde season kicks into gear:

While the remnants of Florence look robust, it will soon run into upper-level winds that will keep it from developing. Behind it is tropical depression #7, which formed this afternoon. Behind that is a new wave coming off the west African coast that has a 20% chance of development. But let's take things one at a time. First, TD #7 will likely strengthen to become Tropical Storm Gordon, possibly as early as tonight. The first forecast track takes it into the heart of the Caribbean by early next week:

Notice how wide the track is Monday and Tuesday. This represents the large uncertainty in the forecast. There are quite a few trusted computer models that keep Gordon northof the Caribbean. Remember, the initial track of any storm this far out is the one we can trust the least. Nevertheless, we should be watchful and we will be; so should you.

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