A look at European bailouts' progress

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Associated Press

Posted on December 13, 2013 at 1:02 PM

Updated Friday, Dec 13 at 1:07 PM

DUBLIN (AP) — The four countries in the 17-member eurozone that received sovereign bailouts have not always performed as well as hoped when their rescue loans were first negotiated.

Greece fared worst compared with the initial forecasts made by the EU Commission and the International Monetary Fund. But even Ireland, which largely met its debt and deficit targets, experienced lower growth and higher unemployment than expected.

Here is a summary of the forecasts made by the bailout creditors at the start of the countries' bailout programs, compared with how the economies fared.

GreeceIrelandPortugal
GDPForecast (May 2010)ActualForecast (Feb 2011)ActualForecast (May 2011)ActualForecast (March 2013)Actual
2011-2.6-7.10.92.2-2.2-1.3n/a0.4
20121.1-6.41.90.2-1.8-3.2n/a-2.4
20132.1-4*2.50.3*1.2-1.8*-8.7-8.7*
20143.10.6*31.7*2.50.8 *-3.9-3.9*
Deficit (pct of GDP)
20117.69.510.613.15.94.3n/a6.3
20126.598.68.24.56.4n/a6.4
20134.94.1*7.57.4*35.9*6.58.3*
20142.63.3*5.15*1.94*8.48.4*
Debt (pct of GDP)
2011145.1170.3112.4104.1101.7108.2n/a71.5
2012148.6156.9118.7117.4107.4124.1n/a86.6
2013149.1176.2*120.5124.4*108.6127.8*115116*
2014144.3175.9*119.1120.8*107.6126.7*123.2124.4*
Unemployment
201114.517.713.414.712.212.9n/a7.9
20121524.312.714.712.915.9n/a11.9
201314.627*11.613.3*12.417.4*1716.7*
201414.126*10.712.3*11.617.7*19.519.2*

(asterisk) Latest forecast by European Commission in autumn 2013, except deficit forecasts for Greece, which are from July report.

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