HOUSTON - Yes, the cooler air is coming with 40s and 50s at night at its coolest, but it's only going to last for 48 hours. Not 49. Then summer-like weather returns. So what gives? Mostly the resonating effects of a departed El Nino pattern, plus a little seasonal variability. (Last October was actually warm than this one!)
As I write this blog post, the AC in my office is on full blast. I'm also nursing a sunburn from working in the yard without sunscreen. (Note to self...) Yes, call it a newbie mistake I blame on living up north and associating this time of year with ... fall. Growing up, 'autumn' was the time when you didn't have to think about covering up like you're preparing for a dust storm just to avoid that sun. Not the case in the sunbelt. (Truthfully, I've lived at the average of 30° N since 2005, so being a resident of The South for over a decade, I should be used to this. Old habits die hard.)
Back to this, "cold front": This second fall front is perhaps the most anticipated of the season and it's heading to Houston late this week. Pumpkins don't last as long on the porch when the heat index is pushing 100° so many are particularly excited. But (yes, underlined and bold) it's not going to be a season-changing cold front. In fact, summer returns Sunday.
It's only going to be cooler than normal for ... count 'em .... forty-eight hours. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48.
Now, forty eight hours is better than nothing, but it's certainly not going to mean gloves and hat for Halloween. Quite the opposite perhaps: So far we're tied for the warmest October since records locally have been kept (late 19th century.) I'm confident that we'll at least tie for 1st warmest, if not break the record.
So, let's get excited that it's going to feel GREAT this weekend, but let's not get mad when your thermometer peaks 90° next week and you remembered the weather guy said there'd be a cold front.