HOUSTON - Overview
This weekend is shaping up to be one of the wetter ones we've seen in southeast Texas in quite sometime. Even though the rain chances are elevated, it won't lend to a total washout.
We continue to monitor the progression of a cold front that continues to move at the pace of ice cold molasses. This front has been the catalyst for not one but two tornado outbreaks across the panhandle of Texas and the wind-swept plains of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Eventually the front will arrive in southeast Texas and set up shop along the coast. This can be a dangerous set up for flooding across the Houston metro area. At this time however beneficial rain and non-severe weather is expected through Tuesday before the whole system finally is ejected east out of the area.
What to Expect
This weekend will not be a washout. In honor of Friday's Adopt-A-Pet day here at the station, the bark will be worse than the bite for most of Saturday with overcast skies most of the day -- but it won't be dry as a bone. Scattered showers will be present area wide but they shouldn't offend too much.
Several distinct rounds of rain are likely throughout the duration of the weekend.
The first round of rain, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, isn't expected until after 5 p.m. on Saturday afternoon as the front makes its final approach to the area. Given limited instability and other atmospheric parameters, severe weather is not anticipated through the weekend. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of south Texas under a "marginal risk" (1 out of 5 on a severity scale) for Saturday and a generic "thunderstorm" category (0 out of 5) on Sunday.
Rainfall will be beneficial to the area as abnormally dry conditions have begun to set into the area. In fact Bush-Intercontinental airport is running more than two inches (2.41") of rain below normal for the month.
Slow moving fronts are problematic. They are capable of focusing high rainfall rates over the same area for hours at a time. Currently, the models do show several bullseye pockets of heavy rain which will have to be watched carefully as this system evolves. At this time most areas should receive between 1 and 3 inches of much needed rain.
The front should move into southeast Texas Saturday afternoon or evening and essentially fall apart right over the area. The boundary, in some form, will still be potent enough to focus heavy rain over the area as disturbances rotate through.
As seen in the RPM model images above, most of Saturday morning and early afternoon are expected to remain relatively dry. There will be the possibility of a few garden variety showers however. The main line of storms, which will be weakening on approach, should be in the area by between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.
Once that line pushes through, the remainder of the evening should be a quiet one with cloudy skies. Models seem to like the idea of mostly dry weather heading into Sunday morning as well with another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Several more rounds of showers and storms are likely heading into Monday and Tuesday as well before the entire thing gets kicked east of the area leaving behind bright sunny skies Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
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