HOUSTON - Thanksgiving is approaching and indications are that it'll be so cold that pilgrams will have to remove the belts off their hats and use them to keep their jackets closed; especially the eastern third of the country.
While normally the day of the gobbler is as warm as the cobbler here in Houston, it remains to be seen if we see any cold air at all and if so, how much.
Here's a tweet from Dr. Ryan Maue, meteorologist at Weather.us:
Frozen turkeys? ECMWF 12z medium-range forecasts show continued chances of Arctic cold blasting down from our Canadian friends who specialize in making it. Maybe this winter will be like 2013-14? pic.twitter.com/K79342hnQS— Ryan Maue | weather.us (@RyanMaue) November 10, 2017
Models over the past few days have hinted at a large chunk of arctic air breaking off and spilling into the eastern third of the country by around November 21st. Notice in the image above how Texas is in more of a blue shading (not as cold) compared to the purples (the brutal cold). If this run of the Euro is correct this far out, which I'm skeptical of, then we'd only see a glancing blow here in Houston.
The American model (GFS) a few days ago was advertising a large release of cold air into the plains, including Texas, but has since backed off that solution. It wouldn't surprise me to see it come back being that a lot of the ensemble models continue to advertise a cold pattern by the week of Thanksgiving.
Thanksgivings here rarely feature brutally cold weather but it can happen. All the records at the end of November are exclusively in the mid to upper 20s for overnight lows and highs in the 40s have been known to occur.
It's a bit too early to nail down just how disruptive the weather will be for the busiest travel week of the year but if your plans take you north and east out of Texas, you just might need that heavy coat.
Given the trends thus far, the coldest air will be well east and northeast of Houston that week. That means highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s locally. However, if the trajectory changes any at all, it could be colder than I've described. Chief Meteorologist David Paul and I are cold weather lovers. Believe me, if it changes in our favor (for cold) then you'll be the first to know!
As we get closer to the holiday, I'll update this story once again.
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