05:05 PM CDT on Monday, August 29, 2005

By Nancy Holland / 11 News

The greatest potential for large loss of life from a hurricane is the storm surge. Nine out of 10 hurricane victims drown in the floodwaters.

AP

90 percent of hurricane victims drown in floodwaters.

Even though Houston is miles away from the Gulf, a rush of water from a storm like Katrina could funnel through Clear Lake and surge through major portions of Harris county.

Experts say the damage could total $50 billion.

An angry red swirl may come just a few hundred miles west.

"First of all Harris County is the wrong place," explained Ray Dodson who was hired by the County to study the effects of a hurricane here.

Dodson says a Category 1 isn't awful. A Category 2 inundates Seabrook and Kemah. Over 200,000 people would be affected by a Category 3. A Category 4 would flood the petrochemical corridor and the Johnson Space Center.

What about a Category 5?

"We have our worst case of all," said Dodson.

Category five pushes the storm surge well inside the 610 Loop with potential for severe loss of life.

"This is the most heavily populated area along any of the Gulf Coast there are more people here at risk than anywhere else," he explained.

This interview with Dodson was done in his third floor office. He says if building were in Kemah during a Category 5 hurricane we wouldn't have been able to do that interview because our heads would have been under water.

And that doesn't even consider rain -- possibly every bit as heavy as Allison.

"You might have to mobilize a million people," said Phil Bedient with the Rice University Engineering Department.

But Allison and Alicia were teachers.

"I think we're probably as well prepared as a flood-prone community can be. You know, we've had lots of experiences with this," said Bedient.

But as people continue to move to the Gulf Coast, they only become more vulnerable and more difficult to mobilize when that red swirl comes here.