Significant Weather Pattern Shift Next Week

HOUSTON - Houston, we're in for a major pattern shift that will usher in the coldest day time highs so far this season along with the possibility of a widespread, long duration rain event next weekend. But first, the prospects of severe weather on Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas basically along and east of I-45 under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather on Monday for the possibility of damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes.


A slight risk still represents an elevated risk of severe weather for our region so don't be surprised to see gusty winds and torrential downpours in your neighborhoods -- although areas south and southwest of Houston may be left high and dry thanks to dry air in the atmosphere.

The main threat will be east and northeast of Houston. As seen in the image above from yours truly, the 'Enhanced Area' over Louisiana represents even a higher risk of severe weather than what we're facing here in Houston.

Bad Timing

Indications are that light to moderate showers will begin popping around the Houston area while you sleep Sunday night into Monday morning. By 6:00 a.m., widespread showers are being noted by our in-house models. Nothing like being right on time -- which is something you may not be as this stuff sets up shop in time for the rush hour.

The best chance for severe weather will be in the early afternoon as the atmosphere begins to heat up but I really think most, if not all, the severe weather will be east and northeast of Houston. Of course Chita will be here all morning to get you through  it!

Big Pattern Shift

Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it! Speaking for myself, I've been wanting cold weather. Some of you have been washing your cars relentlessly in the hopes of taunting the weather gods for rain. Well, we're going to get both; just in time for the weekend.

Temperatures are set to fall harder than Madonna at the 2015 Brit Awards. Too soon?

We've been subject to near record high temperatures on and off again all Autumn long. In fact, according to the National Weather Service in Houston, another high temperature record may fall in Galveston on Monday. The forecast high is 79 degrees. The record is 78 set back in 2006.

However the first of a series of fronts will move through on Tuesday night and will drop our high temperatures into the low and mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday under beautiful skies. The next trough will begin to deepen heading into the weekend which will not only bring daytime highs into the low and 50s...I said 50s...but it'll bring some much needed drinking water for the yards, plants and forest critters.

The last time we had highs in the 50s? February 5th.


Models have been consistent with a heavy rain event for the last several days which lends credence to it being likely. Therefore I've increased the rain chances to the high category for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

As seen in the 18z run of the GFS model (the latest model as of this entry), the rain event will last from Saturday morning through at least Monday night and into Tuesday morning before finally quicking out of here.

Temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 50s with overnight lows into the 40s. While the event is still six to seven days out, it does appear that rain is likely but rain amounts and exact location of the rain still remains to be seen.

The National Weather Service has indicated that the heaviest rain may fall along the coast and just offshore but the finer details still remain an uncertainty.

Keep up to date with the very latest on this developing weather situation on air and online at

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