HOUSTON - Well this about sums up the cold fronts here in Houston:
Cold front on the way?! Texans be like... pic.twitter.com/MIfL3spLhC— Blake Mathews (@KHOUBlake11) October 8, 2017
It wouldn't be funny if it wasn't so true, yes? The truth is we have a fairly strong cold front scheduled to move through Houston and it could get a bit chilly around here by Wednesday morning -- at least by Houston standards.
Now that it's October, we should long have seen our first 50s at Bush-Intercontinental Airport. However that hasn't happened yet although we did officially hit 60° back on September 12th with many of the northern burbs in the low to mid 50s. Remember though, it doesn't count if it didn't happen at IAH.
Our first official 50s on average in Houston is September 26th. In fact, by October 18th, we should have our first 40s! Clearly that doesn't look like our first 40s are going to happen any time soon.
However Houston's first 50s may very well be in the near future. Take a look at the raw model data below from this afternoons GFS model:
Now keep in mind that these numbers will fluctuate with every single update but it's a good general idea as to what we can expect. In the yellow box you'll see 59 and 80. That is the expected morning low at IAH and the expected afternoon high.
Fiddy-nine degrees, y'all! That means places like Conroe, the notorious cold spot, will likely dip into the low 50s before it's all said and done.
The models have been struggling with this front for the last couple of days thanks in two-parts to Hurricane Nate and a developing cyclone lee of the Rockies that has prompted winter storm warnings for Denver for their first significant snowfall of the season!
The flow around low-pressure systems is counter-clockwise. Therefore as Nate made landfall, the winds behind the system were coming in from the north. That helps tug on any troughs that would bring in cooler weather. In the Rockies, a developing cyclone has the same effect. The counter-clockwise flow around the low has helped tug down some much chillier air from the north and the models have finally locked onto the idea of that cold air spilling into Texas.
As they say, "there's nothing between Texas and Canada but a few barbed wire fences" and once that cold air gets moving there isn't much to stop it.
Previous model runs were showing a significant cool down only to take it away the next day. Then the models would advertise it again and then it would take it away. It got the point I needed a dramamine just to look at the next set of model runs with all the ups and downs in the numbers.
Sunday morning's model run, followed by the Sunday afternoon run were consistent in a cool down and therefore I'm biting off on it. The bottom line here is that with the drier air filtering in with super low humidity, it's going to be a very delightful by mid week.
The cooler air doesn't last however. Our northerly wind will shift around to the southeast by Thursday bringing back the humidity and the warmer temperatures but models do hint at another cold front by the following Monday.
When the cold fronts start rolling in on the regular during the month of October, the Cal Smith song "Country Bumpkin" always comes to mind. However, I wouldn't be looking for any "frost out on the pumpkin" any time soon.
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