POLITICS
Presidential hopefuls expected to spend big on TV ads in Texas, California
11:35 AM CST on Sunday, February 3, 2008
LOS ANGELES – Is your economy sagging? Order now and this candidate will bolster your weak credit, as well as tighten your security and return your country to its former hard-charging and respected stature.
But wait, there's more: Political ads sprouting up in this pivotal state and more than 20 others voting on Super Tuesday could soon be coming like never before to Texas.
In living rooms across California, presidential candidates are introducing themselves to voters – broadcasting visual résumés filled with old black-and-white pictures of their public service, vibrant American flags, their own earnest faces, a diverse selection of children, and exhortations about the urgency of their winning.
These images are wedged between car ads, mattress sales and a much more contentious campaign over propositions on Indian gaming revenues.
The presidential race appears docile by comparison.
The candidate ads are, by design, pastel TV Post-it notes to remind voters of the election, help focus them, and maybe even tilt their choice. There is too little time before Super Tuesday to do much else.
California and Texas have rarely gotten this type of attention. The hulking states have served primarily as ATMs – visited by candidates for private fundraisers and to collect campaign donations. But usually the presidential races have been decided by the time Texas and California vote.
"Certainly in the past, California has been ignorable to the candidates, other than making a stop here to pick up checks," said Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at UCLA who specializes in campaign ads.
"Because of the geography of the state and the expensive advertising costs, it is not like New Hampshire or Iowa," Dr. Vavreck said. "This is definitely more advertising than we have seen."
Over the weekend and into Super Tuesday, about $20 million will be spent on political ads, the largest portion in California. It is only a few slices of the big loaf – more than $100 million – that already has been lavished on five smaller states. But the ad blitz is something new for California.
And odds are, because the March 4 Texas primary could be key in determining the presidential nominees, it will be something unprecedented in the Lone Star State, too.
To run a saturation ad campaign – enough so that TV viewers will see a 30-second spot more than once – costs about $3 million a week in California and $1 million in Texas.
The daunting expense is justified by the prize: The Golden State holds the biggest nuggets on Super Tuesday. Of all the delegates to be awarded that day, one in five of the Democrats and one in six of the Republicans will come from California.
And so the candidates have come courting. They are augmenting advertising with free media – John McCain appearing on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno last week, Hillary Rodham Clinton at Cal State on Saturday, and today's rally in Los Angeles featuring Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Caroline Kennedy.
Evan Tracey, founder of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads nationally, said the ad war, which was a bombardment in the early states, is now more like a friendly reminder.
So far, more than 160,000 ad spots have run, almost all in the five early states.
In Iowa and New Hampshire, Barack Obama ran 21,000 TV spots and Mrs. Clinton 19,000, according to Nielsen Media Research. Both also devoted dozens of days, rallies and even door-knocking in each state.
As of Jan. 27, Mrs. Clinton had run 1,900 ad spots in California and Mr. Obama 500, according to Nielsen. Those figures are likely to double and triple over just five days.
Comparatively, Republican Mitt Romney, with almost 37,000 spots since the race began – three times that of Mr. McCain and six times the Mike Huckabee ads – only started his California TV campaign on Friday. Mr. Romney's campaign expects to spend up to $3 million on the Super Tuesday states, $1 million of that dedicated to California.
Both the ground war and the air attacks are spread thin over Super Tuesday states, Mr. Tracey said.
"It's about placement, movement and momentum," he said.
In California and other states, the ads are being targeted to cities and areas where candidates have the biggest pockets of support because the delegates are being awarded proportionately. For California, delegates will be assigned based on who wins in each of the 53 congressional districts.
The ads are hitting at a time when voters are just beginning to pay attention in these states, said Dr. Vavreck.
"It gets people familiar with the candidates. For instance, everyone has a familiarity with Hillary Clinton, but not as a presidential candidate," she said.
In one of Mrs. Clinton's ads, she has testimonials from the late labor leader Cesar Chavez's family. Mr. Obama has testimonials from a Harvard professor and other leaders. Mr. Romney has California newspaper endorsements, and Mr. McCain emphasizes both his Vietnam service and his ties to Ronald Reagan.
Dr. Vavreck said the ads mostly serve as "an alarm clock" to remind voters to go to the polls in two days.
Mr. Tracey agreed.
"They can do what they can do. There's no magic bullet. You hope the last ad they see on the way out the door to vote is yours," he said.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain will probably have the leads coming out of Super Tuesday, but no one believes they will have enough delegates to win.
That means the circus will be pitching its Big Top in Texas.
And the candidates, having calculated their strategy in California, will be facing a similar challenge in the Lone Star State, said Ken Goldstein, a political science professor and director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.
With one big exception: They had only a week after Florida and South Carolina to storm Super Tuesday states, but they'll have a month before Texas votes.
That means a flood of TV ads, he said, for those who can afford it.
"The first obstacle in Texas is money. The second obstacle in Texas is money. The third obstacle in Texas is money," he said.
Mark McKinnon, the media guru for President Bush who is now working with the McCain campaign, said that holds true for the Republicans. Even though Super Tuesday has 10 winner-take-all GOP contests, he expects the outcome to still be in doubt afterward.
"You can't do much in four days" as far as advertising, Mr. McKinnon said.
Therefore, he's predicting that the Republican campaign also will be barnstorming south of the Red River.
"We'll see a good deal of activity in Texas," Mr. McKinnon said.
TV media blitz so far:
$100 million
Biggest spenders:
Mitt Romney, $29 million
Barack Obama, $23 million
Hillary Rodham Clinton, $19 million
John McCain, $8 million
Where the money went:
Iowa, $43 million (voters in Des Moines were hit with almost 22,000 ads)
New Hampshire, $32 million
The message:
The Obama and Romney camps sought the most to portray themselves as the candidates of change. The word "change" was used in 37 percent of the Obama ads and 29 percent of the Romney ads. "Experience" was featured in slightly more of the Clinton ads than "change."
SOURCE: Wisconsin Advertising Project, based on political TV ads Jan. 27
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