Dave Fehling's 11 News report

It’s one way we can define who we are: Republican or Democrat.

Here in Tomball, people will tell you very few of them are Democrats.

“I think it’s definitely a morality thing with small town America and the Christian influence,” resident Kathy Lee said.

“I just associate Tomball with being conservative,” resident Kourtney Ray said.

Republicans dominate politics here and that makes Tomball a lot like the rest of Harris County. Republicans have for years won all the countywide elections. But how much longer is that going to last?

“I believe that it is very likely that the Democrats will sweep Harris County, all county offices,” Gerry Birnberg said.

Birnberg is chairman of the Harris County Democratic Party.

“I don’t believe that’s all political spin,” he said.

One reason for his confidence is a just-released survey. For the second year in a row, more Harris County residents now say they side with Democrats than Republicans: 43 percent to 33 percent.

That’s almost exactly opposite of a couple years earlier when more said they favored the Republicans.

Rice University’s Stephen Klineberg directed the survey. He found increasing support for issues often considered strong ones for Democrats like regulation to reduce pollution and educating the children of illegal immigrants.

“But it’s by no means a done deal here in terms of politics, but it’s much more up for grabs,” Klineberg said.

So this is part of a national trend?

“It’s a national trend which Republicans,” conservative commentator Jon Taylor said. “If they know what’s good for them, they’re going to have to stymie this trend and rally the troops very quickly.”

Taylor, with the University of St. Thomas, said look what’s already happened in Dallas: Democrats swept county elections there last fall.

“Dallas County was an example of the canary in the coal mine, as it were,” Taylor said. “The fear that if Dallas can go Democrat, Harris County could sure do the same thing.”

And in Harris County, there may be more to this than simply dissatisfaction with a Republican president.

The county continues to change with more pastureland paved over for strip malls and subdivisions. More traffic in what had been small towns.

Not surprisingly, that survey showed increasing support for better urban planning and for mass transit.

“That is not necessarily a Democratic or Republican issue,” Taylor said. “That is a quality of life issue, and the party that addresses quality of life issue the best is going to capture the most votes.”

“Right now it’s the Democrats,” he said.

An opportunity for Democrats, a serious challenge for Harris County Republicans.