HOUSTON -- An 11 News / KUHF poll shows former city attorney Gene Locke and Controller Annise Parker are in a statistical dead heat, just a week and a half before early voting begins.
The two candidates are competing to replace outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White, who cannot run again because of term limits.
The poll consisted of 500 telephone interviews with registered Houston voters who consider themselves likely to vote in the December 12 runoff election. Early voting begins November 30 and ends December 8. The Center for Civic Engagement at Rice University and the University of Houston Center for Public Policy Survey Research Institute conducted the poll for KHOU-TV and KUHF Radio.
According to the poll, 37 percent of likely voters plan to cast a ballot for Parker. Thirty-four percent say they will vote for Locke. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent, the poll is a statistical tie. Twenty-one percent of likely voters still have not decided, and eight percent would not disclose their choice in our survey.
"We see this race as very much a toss-up," said Rice University professor Bob Stein, who conducted the poll. "The good news for Gene Locke is that we see some room for improvement for him. He needs to get more familiar with African-American voters, and he needs to turn out more of them. When they do vote, they vote decidedly for Locke. The good news for Annise Parker is that her vote is solid."
The poll showed that 97 percent of the people who voted for Parker in the November 3 general election plan to vote for her again on December 12. For Locke, the figure was 87 percent.
"It appears this is race is one in which Gene Locke is still not very well known to voters," Stein said. "Our numbers show that if this is a low-turnout runoff, then Parker wins it by five points. But if turnout is higher, then we find it is almost dead even."
The poll found that Locke and Parker are evenly split among male and female voters. Thirty-five percent of men and 34 percent of women support Locke, and 36 percent of men and 37 percent of women support Parker.
African-American likely voters say they support Locke by a wide margin: 57 percent say they will pick Locke, and 13 percent plan to vote for Parker. However, Parker has a lead among White/Anglo voters: 49 percent tell pollsters they will vote for Parker, and 25 percent support Locke. The numbers are similar among Hispanic/Latino voters: 47 percent support Parker, and 25 percent support Locke.
Among voters who say they supported Peter Brown in the general election, 38 percent say they will vote for Locke in the runoff, and 46 percent plan to vote for Parker. Brown has endorsed Parker in the runoff, and is actively campaigning for her. Among people who say they voted for Roy Morales, 31 percent say they will vote for Locke, and 16 percent will support Parker. Forty-nine percent of Morales voters told pollsters they have not decided who, if anyone, to support.
