We had our coolest morning so far this fall and now a curious weather change is about to occur that may result in coastal flooding. It's almost a case of dèjá vu, because nearly the same thing happened a few weeks ago. On the first weekend of November, while all eyes were on the developing Tropical Storm Ida, a weak area of low pressure began moving up the Texas coast. The circulation from this low raised the tides causing minor flooding on the Bolivar Peninsula and on Galveston's west end.
While no two weather events are ever the same, this is a similar scenario. Low pressure will begin to develop in South Texas late Thursday and then track toward Southeast Texas. Where the low tracks will go a long way in determining both how much rain we'll likely see and how much coastal flooding is possible. If the low stays longer over land, there will be more rain for parts of the Houston area. But if the low drags along the coast, stronger easterly winds will raise the tides, which could lead to that flood threat. It might not be much more than water on parts of Highway 87 on the Bolivar Peninsula or on the west end of Galveston Island.
Here's a depiction of where the low and the rain will be based on tonight's computer model run. We run it four times a day and while the model is sensing that the low will develop, I'll have better confidence in the result once the low actually forms and is tracked by the model.
The low will eventually track to our east by mid-day Saturday and the rain should end by then. High pressure building in behind the rain brings a brighter Sunday.
