Danielle formed in the tropical Atlantic and is slowing growing in size and strength. The tropical wave that eventually turned into a depression and now a hurricane formed off the Cape Verde Island. These Cape Verde storms usually grow to be the largest of the hurricane season. These storms spend a much longer period over the warm Atlantic waters and grow into monsters. Danielle is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane in the next 24hrs. It is moving over an area of weak wind shear and warm water for the next several days. Hurricane Danielle has the potential to become the first major hurricane of the 2010 season as it drifts closer to the Western Atlantic. Could it impact the East coast or Canada next week ? We will explore that possibility as you read further.
Official hurricane center track information shows a gradual re-curvature more to the North Northwest by the end of the week. A track that is just East of hurricane Colin's, our third hurricane of the 2010 season. Hurricane Colin missed the island of Bermuda, just soaking it with a couple inches of rain. It appears Danielle may pass close and also miss the island of Bermuda. As the storm passes North of Bermuda favorable atmospheric conditions will continue possibly forcing the storm closer to category three status.
Most of our reliable hurricane models start to indicate a turn to the North as the storm nears 30 degrees North latitude. If this trend continues there is a very good chance Danielle will never effect any land masses. There remains a small likely hood that this storm could impact Newfoundland in Canada if it resumes a more Northwesterly course. Right now that is a remote possibility as a trough of the low pressure and cold front will likely steer the storm more to the North as seen in the upper air charts below.
Either way it's still a good idea to be ready for anything as we approach the statistical peak of the hurricane season. A weak cool front pushes into the gulf midweek helping to dry us out. By the weekend, a low pressure system may form in the Western gulf and push West towards Houston increasing our rain chances for the first time since our wet July weather pattern.