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Weather Blog: Tropics Still Ticking

Weather Blog: Tropics Still Ticking

by Gene Norman / KHOU 11 News

khou.com

Posted on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Updated Tuesday, Oct 29 at 8:57 PM

Just when you thought it was all over, think again. The 2012 hurricane season continues and while there is new activity, its more curiosity than threat.  Over the past few days a pair of tropical waves has been slowly showing signs of organizing.  Yesterday, the hurricane center gave a mass of clouds northeast of the Bahamas only a 10% chance of developing.  This morning, that mass became Tropical Depression #16 and by afternoon, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Patty:

Patty formed along the remnants of the same front that brought us our cooler weather last weekend.  The front had stalled in the Atlantic, but a low pressure wave along the front had enough energy to form.  The upgrade to tropical storm was made based on estimated wind speeds, not an actual plane flying into it.  However, Patty's days are numbered.  It will encounter shearing upper-level winds that should weaken it tomorrow before it makes any impact to the Bahamas.

Just east of the Windward Islands (the easternmost part of the Caribbean), a larger and more organized tropical wave now has a 70% chance of developing over the next few days.  

Computer models keep it from entering the Caribbean; at best it will bring squally weather through the Lesser Antilles through early next week.  It could then head north into the Central Atlantic but remains far enough away from the East Coast of the U.S.:

The next name on the list, by the way, is Rafael.  2012 is rapidly closing in on the 19 storm seasons of the last two years.

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