Tropical Storm Isaac Update. . . Isaac's central pressures finally made it to 1000mb (29.53"). It will have a tough time maintaining that intensity level given the shear and terrain it has to overcome these next couple of days. No wonder the hurricane center does not have any major strengthening in mind until Isaac gets into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This year the GFS and European models have been very reliable in forecasting the movement of Beryl and Debby across Florida. Latest GFS has more of a parallel run off Florida than yesterday, this is the more Easterly outlier. On the Westerly extreme is the European with a slight adjustment to the East favoring the GFS model. The National Hurricane Center is going almost dead center with the average of these models. This would bring Isaac into the Eastern gulf early next week. The overall track will depend on the evolution of the trough along the Eastern portion of the US. The models differ on how much of the ridge it can carve out. When Isaac gets to the fork in the road and the trough is still there than Isaac will turn right closer to Florida rather than over the open waters of the gulf. This is the worst case scenario for Florida as the entire Western coastline becomes part of the Everglades swamp.
National Hurricane Center 11am . . .
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES