Mid August is fast approaching and that means hurricane activity will go into high gear in the weeks to come. The question now is the activity in the gulf going to be our next named storm ? Right now a trough of low pressure is forming in the Eastern gulf. A surface low is anchored to the trough Southwest of Naples, Florida. Since the low is weak none of our hurricane models are locking on to solutions. All we know at this time is that atmospheric conditions will continue to improve for either a tropical or nontropical low to form. Keep checking channel 11's hurricane central as development could be quick this time of the year.
In early August of 2008, tropical storm Edouard formed in the Northeast gulf waters along a similar trough of low pressure. Tropical storm Edouard never became a hurricane, which was fortunate for Texas since the storm made landfall near Port Arthur. Total damage estimates where around $250,000 due mainly to flooding from Baytown to the Boliver peninsula. High wind gust associated with Edouard knocked down trees onto power lines in Jefferson county causing thousands of power outages.
Models are shuffling around the Gulf looking for a new center of circulation to form. As you can see above, the center is far from certain at this time.
Jet Stream analysis for Monday August 9 shows the mid level ridge well intrenched across the midwestern plains.
As the ridge flattens Wednesday there may be enough weakness in the upper levels for the trough to move towards Texas. The result could be tropical downpours reaching Houston from Wednesdy through Thursday. Once the rain begins to fall, this may be our best chance at breaking the long string of heat advisories.