The latest visible tropical imagery shows a very broad low pressure disturbance near the equator on the lower right hand portion of the satellite image above. A closed low pressure pattern may be forming. The latest hurricane model runs show the disturbance moving more to the West towards the Lesser Antilles. A storm developing at this time in the Atlantic is unprecedented and more common from August to September, during the peak of the hurricane season. Only one storm has formed in June and that was tropical storm Ana in 1979. Why is this happening so early in the season? The current water temperatures in the Atlantic are running from one to two degrees centigrade above normal. They are more reminiscent of late August or September than mid June.
The disturbance is tracking westerly just below a pocket of very dry air that is visible in the link below. If the tropical disturbance stays this far south of the pocket of very dry air these next few days it may survive.
The greatest threat to the formation of T.S. Alex is wind shear. In the latest wind shear analysis link below, the tropical disturbance is moving into a region of moderate wind shear and could continue to get better organized over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center now places medium odds---30% to 50%--- that this tropical disturbance will become tropical storm Alex. Stay tuned this week for the latest tropical weather updates on this developing story here on Channel 11.