It may be déjà vu all over again, sort of. Last year at the end of June, we had a full-blown hurricane make landfall in extreme northern Mexico. This year, at the end of June, something is brewing, but I don't think it will become another Alex. Here's what the satellite looks like Monday night:
The circled mass of clouds has at least a 50 percent chance of developing into an organized tropical system. On Tuesday, the hurricane hunter plane will go out and investigate to see if there is a closed circulation and sufficient wind to upgrade this system to a depression, or even a tropical storm.
An initial look at computer models show that whatever this system is, it will likely not strengthen beyond a minimal tropical storm before heading toward the Mexican coast near Tampico.
Its possible that some of the rain bands from this system could make it as far north as the Houston-Galveston area by Wednesday. At the same time, a front is sliding through the middle of the country and will end up in northern Louisiana. Showers forming along that front could also drift toward us by mid-week.
If the track of the system changes or if it gets stronger, we could have a better chance of more substantial rain, but right now, that's not the most likely scenario. Stay tuned.