The latest satellite and hurricane hunter flights indicate that Ernesto may weaken today before it ever has a chance at becoming a full-blown hurricane.
The storm is moving into a very hostile environment where dry air and upper level wind shear are blowing the tops of the thunderstorms and weakening the tropical storm. This will continue for the next couple of days.
Latest model runs are also unfavorable for the formation of a hurricane. The GFS and European models that accurately forecast the movement of tropical storm Debby over Florida are now pushing Ernesto more into Honduras and Central America. If this happens, the Honduran land mass would take a bigger bite out of Ernesto and prevent Ernesto from ever becoming a hurricane or reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
The one thing we know about tropical weather, it's unpredictable -- even with the current state of the art technology and modeling techniques. We encourage you to keep checking back frequently throughout the week for the latest on Ernesto and Florence.