Here's where Tropical Storm Emily is tonight:
About 290 miles southeast of Puerto Rico, the newly-formed storm is moving steadily and should strengthen gradually. After struggling a bit for most of the day, Emily finally fought through some shear and began to develop a closed circulation late this afternoon. That's when the National Hurricane Center declared this the fifth named storm of the season. Emily should continue to move on a steady course through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for that part of the Caribbean tonight. Wednesday will be a key day in the storm's progress because that is when it is expected to cross Hispaniola. If it holds together and stays north of that island holding both Haiti and the Dominican Republic, it could emerge in the southern Bahamas where water temperatures are extremely warm. That could lead to rapid intensification and the track shows it becoming a hurricane over south Florida sometime Saturday.
There is a small chance that once over Hispaniola, it could turn slightly westward toward Cuba which would be more of a concern for us. Ending up over Cuba might allow for Emily to nudge closer to the Gulf of Mexico. That's not the most likely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibility. Notice how wide the "cone of uncertainty" is at that point? That reflects the lack confidence regarding where the storm will be at that time. Stay tuned.