We're bracing for the threat of storms tomorrow and they're right on schedule for this time of year. We really have two severe weather seasons in Texas: the spring and the fall. That's when we see the collision of the air masses. In the spring, cold air is retreating back into Canada while warm air is surging from the Gulf of Mexico. In the fall, it's the opposite: the cold air is starting to plunge southward from the north, colliding with warm air over the south. That's the case today. But in addition to that, jet stream energy is poised to dip across the country.
The above snapshot of the jet stream depicts the winds as arrows over the color contrast that represents the temperature difference (cold in the Rockies and warm from Texas to the Great Lakes). Ahead of where the jet stream looks like a "U" is a place that we look for severe weather outbreaks. In fact, we've had reports of tornadoes in Oklahoma today and we'll probably have some nasty weather stretch all the way into the Mississippi River Valley over the next few days as the "U" moves east:
We're at the tail end of the greatest jet stream energy, but the fact that we have such abundant moisture means that air could rise quickly and produce sudden storms. Our Super Microcast computer model shows how a line of storms will likely develop starting in the morning north and west of Houston in places like Brenham, College Station and Huntsville:
Then the line will cross the city and end up stretching from Liberty County to Brazoria and Galveston counties by early afternoon:
Finally, the line will push toward the coast:
That line could spawn storms that deliver damaging winds, so be prepared. Now's the time to consider subscribing to WeatherCall, a service where I call you if your address falls within a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning area. For more, check out: http://www.khou.com/news/local/stories/khou080827_mp_weather_call.1aac3989.html.
If you've lived here a while, you probably remember an outbreak of severe weather on November 21, 1992 that destroyed homes in northwest Houston and Channelview. I know I'll never forget them, along with an outbreak the following year on the 16th as a powerful tornado dropped across downtown during the morning rush hour. I'm not saying we'll see that tomorrow, but I am saying that this is our second severe weather season. Some of the long range models we look at point to a similar scenario setting up by Monday. By then, the dip in the jet stream is closer to us and we'll have to see how much that increases our chances of a severe weather outbreak. Stay tuned.
