Morning satellite analysis indicates weak circulation near the tropical wave. The wave continues to interact with an upper level trough of low pressure in the western gulf. As the upper low in the Bay of Campeche drifts away, the wave may immerge into the gulf of Mexico within 48hrs. Latest dynamic model runs seem to take the system into the eastern gulf towards Florida. The gulf water temperatures are warm enough and wind sheer is low, so further development is possible. Its still too early to tell exactly where the system will travel since the steering currents are weak and the system may not develop past the tropical wave stage. The blue line on the storm track map is an extrapolation forecast based on no changes in the surrounding environment. The other colored tracks are dynamic models that factor changes in the steering currents and weather patterns near the wave of low pressure. These models have been the best performers in the past 2008 hurricane season. The state of Florida could get a real soaker next week if the model runs are correct. Stay tuned to channel 11 all weekend for the latest tropical weather updates.
Tropical Weather Update
Posted on June 27, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Updated Tuesday, Oct 27 at 11:12 AM