The latest numbers are in from the forecasters at Colorado State. Dr William Gray has been forecasting the probabilty of hurricanes for 26 years and an average season may be on the way. Since the beginning of the year the number of named storms and possible hurricanes have been downgraded with each update. The average season has ten to eleven named storms of which six usually turn into hurricanes. This year those numbers may average ten named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes with winds over 111mph. A strenghtening el nino will counteract warmer tropical Atlantic waters. According to Dr William Gray and Dr Phil Klotzback this is the main contributing factor for the reduction in the number of hurricanes. This year look for a new product from Colorado State that includes the probability of a hurricane in your specific area. The probability of a hurricane hitting the East Atlantic coast is 27% (31% is average). The average for the Gulf coast or Galveston is 27% (31% is average) and the Caribbean has a 37% of seeing a hurricane this year (42% is average). Currently tropical activity is at a minimum with only one tropical wave of interest several hundred miles off the African coast. The national hurricane center is forecasting this wave to have less than a 30% chance of developing into a storm. We will monitor the wave but most have sheared out in this region these past few weeks.
Fewer Hurricanes Forecast For 2009
Posted on August 4, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Updated Tuesday, Oct 27 at 11:12 AM