It is perhaps the busiest time of year for NFL decision-makers. The NFL Draft is imminent, and over the next week or so various factors must be weighed as teams look to craft their roster through the three-days and crucial post-draft free agency process.
But there is another decision to make during this period revolving around the status of the first-rounders from the 2015 NFL Draft. These players have now accrued three seasons in the league, and thus are entering the final year of their rookie contracts. However, each first-rounder’s contract includes the option to secure the player for a further season, and NFL teams have to decide by May 3rd whether they wish to take up the option.
For some teams it is a straightforward decision – both the Jets and the Titans have already tied down Leonard Williams and Marcus Mariota respectively. But for Houston, the decision regarding Kevin Johnson is a tough one to make.
On the one hand, Johnson is coming off of a rough season and has struggled with injury throughout his NFL career thus far. He did little to suggest a future as a starting cornerback last year, and his fifth-year salary would not come cheap; Johnson would earn over $9 million were the option taken (this figure comes from the average earnings for the third to 25th best-paid players at the player in question’s position). This money becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the league year in which it is earned.
Conversely choosing not to take the option is a risk. The Bears chose to decline the option last year, and Kyle Fuller enjoyed a breakout season at cornerback: Chicago will now pay Fuller significantly more in 2018 than they would have done had they picked up his fifth-year option. Johnson showed sufficient promise in his first season and a half that an emergence of similar ilk is certainly not out of the question, and thus tying him down for a further year could prove sensible for the Texans.
Ultimately I believe Brian Gaine will exercise the option on Johnson. If Johnson rebounds with a strong season and proves himself a top cornerback then the risk of losing him or having to overpay may prove too great. The team’s uncertainty at the position is well-documented, and should Johnson breakout, securing a potentially elite defensive back at under ten million dollars is a good deal. Houston would also have an out – the Detroit Lions released Eric Ebron ahead of the league year to avoid his option becoming fully guaranteed. If Johnson performs similarly in 2018 as he did last season, the Texans could do likewise.
