Good day and welcome to my weather blog! So you may have heard that a cold front is headed this way and it could be a biggie. Well, it certainly looks that way!
Temperatures are set to tumble in Texas harder than Madonna at the Britt Awards.
Ouch! That'll leave a mark.
The temperatures tumbling here across Houston next week won't hurt you but it'll have you looking for long sleeves and maybe a light jacket, especially in the morning hours Saturday and Sunday; and right on time, too!
Our first average 40s in Houston is October 18th and with the passage of this front on the 20th, we'll be almost perfectly on time.
Take a look at the forecasted two meter temperatures on next Saturday afternoon! Keep in mind that this is still seven days away and it will likely continue to adjust up and down with newer model runs.
Wow, now that's a shock to the system.
If, and only if, the model is correct, we're talking highs in the mid to upper 50s next Saturday afternoon (everywhere right of that red line). Now in my professional opinion, it's way too early to expect temperatures that chilly in the afternoon this early in the year. In fact if you look at the coolest daytime high records, they're hovering in the low 60s. I highly doubt we'll be challenging records but as they say, records are meant to be broken.
I think the key take away here is that temperatures are set for a big decline ushering in an unmistakable sense of Autumn.
I think a more likely scenario is to have high temperatures stuck near 70 for daytime highs next weekend and widespread 40s for overnight lows Sunday morning, our first widespread 40s of the season.
So how do we know that this could be a biggie front?
For starters take a look at the map below. This is the 1000-500 millibar thickness chart. Think of the atmosphere in terms of expansion and contraction. The more expanded (higher the number) it is, the hotter it is. The colder it is the more contracted (lower the number) it is because cold air is denser and heavier than warm air.
We know that this front has the potential to be big because the little red numbers there are showing a thickness value of 552 (5,552 feet) on Saturday afternoon. That's an extremely low number for this early in the year during the afternoon hours. If it was January --- meh, no big deal.
You'll also notice how amplified (wavy) the red lines are. They're vertical and form a "U-shape" directly over Houston. That's an indication of a very vigorous front as an area of low pressure tries to close off east of the city.
Putting it all together, there are a number of factors that determine temperature. That includes how dry the air is to how cloudy it is to the source region of the air. We won't be able to pinpoint temperatures until it gets closer to next weekend but the potential is certainly there for very cool air to spill into the region. I'll dive into greater detail next week when the event draws a little closer.
With a play on Antoine Dodson, hide your shorts, hide your tank tops and hide your swim trunks. Temperatures are going to be going down everywhere over here! Just how low remains to be seen.