It's barely two weeks into the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season and already the models are sniffing trouble in the northwest Caribbean Sea late next week. Keep in mind it's only the potential of development and not the guarantee of.
Currently since this model 'cane is beyond the five to seven day window, the National Hurricane Center has yet to make any official statement regarding potential development.
So what's all the hullabaloo about?
Over the last few days, many of the global forecasting models including the big names GFS (American) and ECMWF (Euro) models are in steady agreement that the monsoonal gyre over the Caribbean will give birth to some sort of organized system by next weekend. That could be anything from a weak tropical depression to a tropical storm or perhaps even something stronger.
This time of year it's not so uncommon for a single model to initiate cyclogensis (develop). A single model developing a tropical system is one thing -- especially if said model is not overly reliable; the Canadian model for example. However it's quite another when nearly all the global models are showing the same thing including timing and location of the potential development. That includes the primary models of the GFS and Euro. All models below are provided by TropicalTidbits.com: